Financial Modeling

We will make forecasts and calculate risks

ASER specialists are ready to evaluate your business based on all performance indicators, forecast financial flows, calculate the cost-benefit ratio, and analyze key risks.

Why is a financial model necessary?

• Investment decision-making. Before launching a new project, it is crucial to understand its key parameters (investment volume, project timeline, revenue, costs, business funding sources, etc.). Additionally, an efficiency analysis must be conducted to monitor performance metrics and decide on the project’s further implementation. In the financial models prepared by ASER experts, these questions will be addressed.
• Raising funds. Investors in Uzbekistan are interested in companies with a well-developed strategy and a professionally prepared business presentation. Securing a government grant, a bank loan, or support from a benefactor can expand the company’s opportunities.
• Business analysis. Understanding competitors, market structure, supply and demand, and exploring potential growth areas helps set goals for a specific period. This is particularly relevant if there are deviations from forecasts or unsatisfactory results. Our specialists compare actual performance with planned targets, adjust forecasts, and help identify new strategic directions for development.
• Management decision-making. If a company faces a critical issue requiring the business owner or manager to make the right decision, a well-developed financial model can facilitate effective decision-making. The financial model will account for potential risks in each alternative scenario.

The ASER team offers financial model development for businesses in Uzbekistan and abroad – choose specialists with experience in projects of international organizations and a high level of knowledge of Excel. Our clients include the UN, UNIDO, EBRD, and IBRD.

We conduct detailed analyses

ASER experts have developed an algorithm for developing a financial model of a business. The process is broken down into key stages:

• Analysis of economic policy. We calculate all key macroeconomic indicators in Excel, considering every nuance from raw material and rental prices to exchange rate fluctuations.
• Data collection for financial modeling. ASER requests reports for previous periods and analyzes the current state of the business, including communication with its representatives. At this stage, we build a sales funnel, determine fixed and variable costs, and calculate depreciation and working capital.
• We find the net discounted income, internal rate of return, investment potential, payback period, and project profitability in Excel. Thanks to a comprehensive determination of indicators and compilation of a summary, a conclusion is formed about the project’s effectiveness, its potential, and how to proceed in the near future.
• Development of an economic model. Based on the calculated indices and collected data, ASER experts will create a structured and organized document, noting alternatives, risks, and forecasts for each scenario, and propose the most promising solution.
• Stress test. ASER analyzes the sensitivity of the business to external factors and its readiness for planned actions. At this stage, it is also possible to adjust the model and develop additional elements depending on the results, and build alternatives. An example of a stress test: hypotheses on the need for additional resources and the conformity of profitability indicators in the short term.

In the end, we present the results of our work, preparing analytical reports for top managers and presentations for investors, and provide the original documents and Excel calculations.

Business modeling enables owners to answer key questions such as:

• What level of profit can be expected for the reporting period?
• How can new projects break even and reach the point of profitability?
• Which key indicators significantly impact business development?

With a financial model in Excel you will be able to assess the current situation, avoid unnecessary expenses, and prevent the failure of an idea.

Why choose us for model development?

Our goal is to provide clients with documents that are:

• Every company employee will be able to understand the prepared documents and Excel calculations. ASER experts are ready to explain all aspects.
• Calculations are open, allowing you to independently track metrics based on the initial data.
• The model adapts to the changing conditions of your project. If new sales channels emerge, old ones disappear, or production technology changes, the model can be adjusted to reflect the new realities.
• We avoid including metrics that do not add value to the business.

Our Excel financial models enable business owners to identify effective tools for business growth, while potential investors will be able to assess the project’s prospects.

ASER focuses on the specifics of each company’s operations, considers nuances, and works individually with every client.